Thursday, August 07, 2003

It's official: Schwarzenegger is in. This is a big surprise to me and to a lot of other people, as the understanding was that he wouldn't run; maybe he changed his mind when he saw the competition.

As to whether he can win... that's a different story. If the Republicans seriously back him, then he's probably got an excellent shot, as he has party connections that many of the other candidates can't match and a higher profile than anybody else in the race, including, perhaps, Davis himself. Issa is a lightweight compared to Arnold, as is Rioriden. Plus, Arnold is the only one that might be able to rise above the problem of the sheer number of candidates; campaigners are going to go through hell just dealing with helping people locate their candidate, let alone the problem of sound-alikes. People may pick Arnold simply because he's the most recognizable, and if he has the Republican machine backing him, well....

(One thing, though: I honestly doubt that this will mean anything for the possibility of Bush taking California next year. Schwarzenegger's fame will be an asset for his own run, but I doubt even a famous Republican Governor will do anything for Bush. Those choosing Arnold for his fame won't care about his backing Bush, and Yellow-dog Republicans would vote for Bush anyway.

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