Digby thinks so. And I find it hard to disagree.
Let's be clear: the Democratic party is Obama's party now. He not only has the coattails in the fall, but has unmatched fundraising potential, enough that everybody HAS to listen to what he has to say. So if the Dems pass FISA, it's because he wants them to pass FISA.
Is it his Lieberman-Kyl? Not sure. Probably not, considering the timing. But it IS going to be something that he needs to deal with, and is going to severely limit his ability to "pivot" without alienating progressives so badly that they'll start treating his as the next Hillary Clinton.