Michele Bachmann will be the GOP nominee.Kos then goes on to talk about the various early states and how they favor Bachmann. No idea if this will actually pan out, but it's plausible enough.
Yeah, yeah—this could be wishful thinking. Bachmann would gift Obama a second term and would lead to another Democratic wave election in the House. And yeah, this assumes that Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin don't get into the race. But this is the age of Christine O'Donnell and Ken Buck. Republican primary voters don't give a damn about electability, but about casting a vote for the purest candidate.
Currently, there are three real candidates in the race—Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich is history, Rick Santorum is yesterday's news, Ron Paul is a niche product, John Hunstman has six supporters, and Herman Cain exists only to allow Republicans to say, "Some of my best friends are black!"
Of the three credible candidates, Bachmann easily wins the purity test. Romney has been on the other side of pretty much every issue of current importance to Republicans, while Pawlenty supported the individual mandate. They're toast.
But it's not just policy substance. The early GOP nomination calendar clearly favors Bachmann...
I'm very, very skeptical about Kos' declaration that this will be a gimme for Obama, though. Yes, Obama's clearly a more serious, sane candidate and certainly preferable to someone like Bachmann. But as I mentioned with the LulzSec thing, America's going through some very strange times right now. The whole reason why the GOP is acting this way is because there are a lot of rank-and-file Americans that are very angry with what's going on in their country—but whose ideology is preventing them from accepting the truth about exactly why their lives are so fucked up. It's not going away. It's only getting worse.
That anger, and that mistake, could spread all over the place. It was already responsible for the ridiculous GOP House takeover in 2010. It hasn't peaked. So why would Obama and his party be the beneficiaries? What if Bachmann strikes a chord?