I wasn't expecting Clinton's win in NH. I really don't think she was either, but here we are. Apparently it's because women came out and youth didn't, which was pretty critical: youth trend towards Obama, women trend towards Clinton. Single women REALLY go for Clinton, and while they don't usually vote any more than youth, they certainly did yesterday.
(There's also this thing, though I'm not quite sure what to think of it.)
Here's George talking about it. More as I think of it.
Edit: Ok, I thought of it.
First, the tear thing. Yes, I wouldn't be surprised if it motivated turnout, at least a bit. It humanized Clinton, and Edwards' foolish jab probably motivated some women to turn out. The mailer saying that Obama was weak on women's rights probably didn't help, and neither did the college kids still on winter break.
It also could be something kos brought up: that while Clinton herself isn't that bad of a candidate or campaigner, the people around here are useless to a man (or woman). They're the "strategists" that constitute everything bad about the modern Democratic party, and don't deserve to get anywhere near the White House.
And it could be people responding to President Clinton's blistering "it's a fairy tale" attack on the Obama campaign on Monday. If the allegations are true, Obama's people have been engaged in some very shady dealings. No big surprise, but certainly disappointing.
It could also be the simple fact that independents can only vote once, and were probably drawn in by McCain.
Where does this leave the Dem race? Well, oddly enough, it means that South Carolina may be the key. Obama's people have to be really, really happy that Colbert didn't get into the race, because he could have seriously thrown them off. As it is, I suppose the key question is whether this win will energize their fundraising and let them be competitive before Super Tuesday. Your guess is as good as mine.
It also means that BOTH parties might well be going all the way down to the convention. It's bizarre to even think it, but with the Republicans' weak field and the divisions between independent and Dem-identified primary voters, the United States really might not coalesce around individual candidates. That'll have huge effects going into the election, because neither side will have been able to spend those big primary bucks on attacking the other side. And the bloggers will remain divided, with the only consensus being one thing:
that those weaksauce "everybody's a winner because the horserace proves that Dems are keen!" posts on kos are really, really lame.